Consumer electronics (mobile phones, PCs) enter the off-season. The weak supply and demand situation may prompt tin prices to fluctuate rangebound [SMM Tin Futures Brief Comment]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 16, 2025

On June 16, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuated rangebound, closing at 264,500 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.10% from the previous trading day. The trading volume reached 16.337 billion yuan, and open interest decreased by 676 lots to 23,916 lots.

Weakness in Traditional Consumption: Consumer electronics (mobile phones, PCs) entered the off-season, with orders weakening MoM. Tinplate demand for food and beverage cans was sluggish, leading to low restocking willingness among enterprises.

Support from Emerging Sectors: Production schedules for PV modules remained high, and the demand for tin in welding strips showed resilience. However, production schedules for June decreased slightly MoM, limiting incremental demand.

Bullish Factors: The launch of the domestic NEV rural promotion policy stimulated expectations for end-use demand. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September increased, alleviating liquidity pressure in the metal market.

Bearish Disturbances: Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East boosted risk-averse sentiment. US stock market corrections and crude oil volatility suppressed risk appetite. Uncertainty remained regarding US tariff policies on China, limiting market optimism.

In the short term, the pattern of tin prices fluctuating rangebound within the 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt range is unlikely to change.